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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Obama's odds of re-election, 14 months out

Incumbents tend to have better odds than challengers, true. But there's a tipping point at which it no longer matters (a la Jimmy Carter). His favorability is right at around 50% and his approval rating is about 10 points behind that. Never mind the fact that, since World War II, no president has been re-elected with a jobless rate higher than 7.2 percent. As it stands, Mitt Romney could beat Obama in a head to head contest, and Rick Perry could tie.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

The Robin Hood Myth

Per wiki:
Director's Law states that the bulk of public programs are designed primarily to benefit the middle classes but are financed by taxes paid primarily by the upper and lower classes. The empirically derived law was first proposed by economist Aaron Director.

The philosophy of Director's Law is that, based on the size of its population and its aggregate wealth, the middle class will always be the dominant interest group in a modern democracy. As such, it will use its influence to maximize the state benefits it receives and minimize the portion of costs it bears

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