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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Obama's odds of re-election, 14 months out

Incumbents tend to have better odds than challengers, true. But there's a tipping point at which it no longer matters (a la Jimmy Carter). His favorability is right at around 50% and his approval rating is about 10 points behind that. Never mind the fact that, since World War II, no president has been re-elected with a jobless rate higher than 7.2 percent. As it stands, Mitt Romney could beat Obama in a head to head contest, and Rick Perry could tie.

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